Understanding the Future

Organizations today face an increasingly complex contextual environment. The intensity of what is recognized as a VUCA world has changed how they view the world, interact with each other, and respond to this environment.

Understanding the Future shows individuals and organizations how to develop scenario planning, using the Intuitive Logics (IL) model, to perceive what is happening in the business environment and how to improve strategic decision-making to plan for uncertainty.

Ronald Bradfield, a renowned scenario planning practitioner, traces the origins of scenario planning from its evolution to associated techniques and details the IL development process from Stage 1 to Stage 5. He includes an insightful chapter on how people think, describing the role of heuristics and biases, reviewing some of the commonly known ones, and concludes with the pros and cons of the IL model.

This book includes extensive reference material: appendices, a list of Foresight and Scenario organizations, Futures journals and magazines, published scenarios, select readings and guides, and the author’s unique case material directly from his world-leading consulting work of the past 30 years.

Understanding the Future is an exceptional, comprehensive guide for postgrads, practitioners, leaders, policymakers and anyone involved in organizational development or management risk who needs to understand the IL scenario framework and its value in addressing organizational challenges amidst complexity.

• Internationally relevant case material with a unique insight and new interpretations
• Only book to consider the pros (and cons) of the IL model in scenario planning

A founding member of the Centre for Scenario Planning & Future Studies at Strathclyde Business School, Ron Bradfield is a member of the World Futures Society and Futurists Network, and a co-author of the book “The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios”, published by Wiley in 2002. He has served on the Boards of several companies and has been an invited speaker/panelist at various senior management conferences, including the Economist CFO Roundtable, Asia Network and CEO Asia Roundtable conferences.

Understanding the Future not only provides postgrads and practitioners (particularly in organisational development) with a comprehensive guide to the processes, positives and challenges of scenario planning, it is the only book in the market to place a focus on IL (intuitive logics), the main system employed by orgnaisations and courses to study and implement scenario planning. The author also includes unique case material directly from his world-leading consulting work of the last 30 years.

"This book sets the scene for the need for scenario planning and includes a full description of how to do it. Well-written and made accessible by a master practitioner, it outlines the historical development of widely-used methods for anticipating the future and details what needs to be in place for successful scenario development - including team membership, scenario storylines writing, and workshop management. Focusing on the components of the popular Intuitive Logics method, Bradfield ensures that readers will be primed to do it themselves."
Professor George Wright, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, UK

"This new book is a very welcome, up-to-date addition to the literature on scenario planning, providing a learned and comprehensive introduction to the theories, concepts, tools and techniques in the field of scenario planning." Professor Robert Van Der Meer, Strathclyde University, Glasgow

"This very useful book provides anyone who wants to better understand the increasing environmental complexity and turbulence, with a practical approach to scenario building to explore alternative futures."
Professor Fran Ackerman, Curtin University, Australia

"This book provides an extensive and much needed historical review of the field of scenario planning, including leading models, complimented with an extensive review of contemporary techniques in the field. The bulk of the chapters present a highly detailed profile of the five-stage Intuitive Logics scenario development process. With focused guidance for both facilitators and practitioners, this book is one of the most comprehensive texts around. The book serves as a valuable and rich resource for any stage of experience in scenario planning and belongs as a permanent addition to everyone's library."
Megan M Crawford, Edinburgh Napier University, UK